Posted by Kevin on 17 July 2009 | 0 Comments
Tags:
China,
Japan,
Debt
Will other countries keep buying our Treasuries?
If China and Japan change their minds, could the United States have a problem? Since 1980, the U.S. has imported more than it has exported.1 The U.S. government makes up for this trade deficit by issuing Treasury bonds and other debt instruments. Foreign governments have long lined up to buy them.
China holds almost $800 billion of U.S. Treasuries. That?s the April 2009 figure from the U.S. Treasury (at this moment, the most recent data). In addition, Japan has $686 billion in Treasuries. Hong Kong has $81 billion, Taiwan $78 billion, Singapore $40 billion, India $39 billion, and South Korea $35 billion. Away from Asia, Great Britain holds $153 billion, Russia holds $137 billion, and Brazil holds $126 billion. 2 U.S. Treasury bonds offer these institutional investors some stability in uncertain times.
Are China and Japan wary of buying more? Earlier in the decade, China, Japan and other nations readily bought Treasuries. From 2004-2008, China spent as much as 14% of its GDP on the purchase of foreign debt - mostly American debt.3
What happened as a result? China, Japan and other creditor countries got a nice return on their investment and a strong export market. We got to buy inexpensive imports. This kept the dollar strong and interest rates low.
Now we have two problems that could potentially sour this relationship. The economies of China, Japan and other countries have suffered along with ours in the global recession. Moreover, the U.S. has run up a huge budget deficit to accompany its trade deficit. President Obama is on record as saying that we may have trillion-dollar deficits for ?years to come.?
Under these conditions, China and Japan are naturally getting leery of holding so much American debt (especially when the Federal Reserve is printing money to buy it). China needs to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus package, and Japan announced a $154 billion stimulus in April. Tax revenues in both economies have declined with the recession. Government regulators in China have ordered banks to direct money this year to local governments and small- and medium-sized businesses. All this means China and Japan aren?t as eager for dollars and Treasuries as they were a few years ago.3, 4
What if other nations stop buying our debt? There are three potential side effects. One, interest rates would likely increase as there would be fewer buyers for Treasuries. Two, the dollar could weaken. Three, long-term bond prices could fall.
Voices on the fringe worry about a scenario in which the central banks of China, Japan and other nations jettison dollars en masse or abruptly quit buying U.S. debt. Realistically, the odds of something like this happening are slim. These countries would have nothing to gain by stifling America?s chances for economic recovery, and these decisions would greatly harm the world economy.
Now for some good news. In May, our trade deficit fell to its lowest level since November 1999. It shrank 9.8% in May from April levels, defying analysts? expectations ? and offering a hint of economic recovery. Our deficit with China increased by $4.4 billion for May, but the 2009 increase is 12.6% under last year?s pace. The U.S. deficit with Japan reduced to its lowest level in more than 20 years last month.5
More good news. Domestic and foreign demand for Treasuries is still strong ? in its auction in the first full week of July, the Treasury quickly sold $19 billion of 10-year notes, with Treasury yields hitting 6�-week lows.6 At least in the short term, it appears the government doesn?t have to struggle for buyers to fund its reforms and rescue efforts.
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Citations.
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Posted by Curtis on 16 July 2009 | 0 Comments
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Quarterly Update
A quick summary of economies
If opportunity doesn't knock, build a door." Milton Berle
The quarter that just concluded gave stock market investors reason to celebrate. Let’s look at what happened on Wall Street and in the broad economy this spring.
The second quarter 2009 in brief. We just saw the best quarter for stocks since 1998 - the S&P 500 gained 15.2% from April to July.1 The global rebound in equities was simply phenomenal this spring. All of it happened while two major automakers went through bankruptcy, major banks weathered the drama of stress tests, and oil prices took off. The Obama administration proposed too much reform in my opinion, and indicators offered hope and hints of economic recovery.
Domestic economic health. Some key indicators moved into the plus column this spring. Consumer spending was up 0.3% in May after a flat April; personal income was up 1.4% in May after rising 0.7% for April.2 Retail sales? Up 0.5% in May, following a 0.2% contraction in April.3 Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in both April and May.4 Perhaps we were taking advantage of lower prices. The Consumer Price Index dropped 1.3% between May 2008 and May 2009, the biggest year-to-year decrease since 1950. CPI was flat in April and only rose 0.1% in May.5
Turning from individuals to institutions, it was another trying quarter for banks and automakers. Once-invincible Chrysler and General Motors each filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; with the help of the federal government, Chrysler found a buyer in Fiat. The government simply took a 60% stake in GM as it fostered its reorganization.6 Both governmental moves were suspect, trampling constitutional issues and our capitalistic economy in the process. Time will tell if these were wise moves. In my humble opinion, I doubt it, as both companies ultimately will fail.
High anxiety preceded the Federal Reserve-administered stress tests of 19 major U.S. banks, and 10 of 19 banks were directed to find more capital – most notably Bank of America, which was told to find another $34 billion. Other big thrifts (among them Goldman Sachs, American Express, MetLife, Capital One, and JPMorgan Chase) were judged adequately capitalized.7
In Washington, reform was in the air. In May, Congress passed new rules forcing credit card issuers to notify cardholders of rate hikes 45 days in advance, restrict credit limits for teens and collegians, and curb retroactive rate increases.8 June saw the Obama administration and Congressional leaders working hard to revamp financial industry regulations. On this note, we applaud the administration. This legislation contained references to a “fiduciary standard” which many in the financial industry say is long overdue. Powerful forces in the SEC and FINRA are backing the “stay the course suitability standards” of the brokerage industry. It is time to move to the fiduciary standard, as the brokerage industry lead us into this financial mess many months ago. Clients are urged to correspond with their Congressman to support the “fiduciary” standard for the industry.
The President proposed making the Federal Reserve the great watchdog over major banks, insurers and other financial industry firms. Proposed legislation would give the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Treasury more power and set up a Consumer Financial Protection Agency to police mortgages and derivatives and credit cards.9
Now, should the government get into the healthcare business? The government already has Medicare and Medicaid to show for its healthcare acumen. Due to these two programs, the United States in placed in its current healthcare dilemma. In the vision of the President, such a move could make health care and health insurance more affordable and accessible to 45 million more Americans. Two versions of a bill to do so meandered through Congress in spring. The House version included a government-sponsored healthcare option, and the Senate version jettisoned that idea.10 This legislation, as well as the proposed “cap and trade” bill are game changers in my opinion. If pass, our lifestyle and economy will change in immense ways we cannot comprehend. Clients are urged to correspond with their Congressmen to defeat these proposals.
Major indexes. Look at the turnaround. At the end of June, the S&P 500 increased 35.89% above its March 9 low. History will record 2Q 2009 as the best quarter for the S&P since 4Q 1998, for the NASDAQ since 2Q 2003, and the best quarter for the Dow since 4Q 2003.1
| %Change | 2Q2009 | 1Q2009 | Y-T-D |
| DJIA | +11.01 | -13.30 | -3.75 |
| NASDAQ | +20.05 | -3.07 | +16.36 |
| S&P 500 | +15.22 | -11.67 | +1.78 |
(Source: CNBC.com, 6/30/09)1
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
Global economic health. Were things getting better, or not? The jury was out – though plenty of opinions were in. The World Bank said things were getting worse – it revised its 2009 forecast in June, projecting 2.9% global economic contraction for the year instead of the previously speculated 1.7% decline.11 “We need to clean up the banks,” European Union commissioner Neelie Kroes stated in June, adding that the global economy was “far away from a proper recovery.”12
Then again, finance ministers in Japan and South Korea felt the world economy showed signs of bottoming, and in late June, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development positively revised the economic forecast for its 30 member nations for the first time since 2007.13
World financial markets. The rally was truly worldwide. Some 2Q 2009 performance statistics: Hang Seng, +35.38%; Shanghai Composite, +24.70%; Nikkei 225, +22.80%; FTSE 100, +8.23%; DJ Stoxx 600, +16.64%; CAC 40, +11.87%; the DAX, +17.72%. The Australia All Ordinaries gained 5.42%; South Korea’s Kospi gained but 1.51%.14, 15
Three emerging-market indices gained more than 40% last quarter. India’s Sensex advanced 49.29% to put it up 50.24% across the first half of the year. Russia’s seemingly boom-or-bust RTSI gained 43.12% - and ended the first half of 2009 up 56.20%. Argentina’s Merval index rose 41.03% last quarter.15
The MSCI World Index gained 19.7% in 2Q 2009; between the March 9 close and the June 30 close, it gained 40.0%. Its sibling, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, climbed 33.6% last quarter and ended the quarter 56.9% above its March 9 close.16
Commodities markets. It was quite a quarter. Oil futures finished 2Q 2009 at $69.89 per barrel for a 40.74% 2Q gain. Oil hasn’t had a quarter with this high an increase since 3Q 1990. Oil ended 2Q 2009 up 56.70% for the year. Diesel and heating oil also had strong quarters with double-digit gains.17, 18
Among precious metals, copper couldn’t be ignored, gaining 22.78% for the quarter to put it up 61.86% for the first half of the year. Gold ended 2Q 2009 at $927.10 an ounce, eking out a 0.49% quarterly gain – gold futures fell 5.28% in June, but ended the first half up 4.92% for the year. Silver futures rose 4.5% in the quarter to go up 20.0% for the year at the end of June.17, 19 Turning to the dollar; it lost 2.66% versus the yen and 5.30% against the euro in the quarter.20
In crop futures, soybean and sugar prices respectively gained 29% and 33% across the quarter; corn futures slid 9.3%, their fourth straight quarterly loss.21, 22
Housing & interest rates. Were existing home prices cheap enough to spur a sales recovery? Was anyone interesting in buying a new home? Would rising Treasury yields send mortgage rates upward? The respective answers were maybe, maybe not, and perhaps slightly. Answers were still hazy in a sector in which the bottom may or may not have emerged.
Pending home sales rose in May for the fourth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors. When was the last time that happened? July-October 2004.23 Existing home sales rose in April and May, although the May median sale price was 16.8% below the median price a year ago.24 New home sales went north 2.7% in April but fell 0.6% in May.25
Comparing the Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Surveys from April 2 and July 2, we see that average rates on 30-year FRMs rose from 4.78% to 5.32%. However, average rates on 5-year ARMs decreased from 4.92% to 4.88% within that time frame. Rates for 1-year ARMs went from 4.75% to 4.94%. As for 15-year ARMs, average rates went from 4.52% to 4.77% during this stretch.26, 27
Third quarter outlook. The bullish might want to consider the latest Reuters quarterly poll of 150 equity strategists worldwide. In their collective opinion, the S&P 500 will gain another 8% by the end of 2009, and the benchmark indices of Japan, Germany, England and Hong Kong will register double-digit gains in 2010.28 As great as all that sounds, the U.S. and global economy just do not seem to be rebounding as fast as the markets would like. With unemployment numbers still weighing on stocks at the top of July and the real estate sector still weak, some economists think things won’t really pick up until the end of the third quarter or the start of the fourth quarter. Will the stock market herald the recovery with a fine summer and fall? Let’s hope so, as we close the book on a terrific quarter.
Thank you for your continued business and support.
Interactive Capital Management
Curtis A. Smith, CFP®
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Citations.
1 cnbc.com/id/31670314 [6/30/09]
2 money.cnn.com/2009/06/26/news/economy/personal_income/?postversion=2009062609 [6/26/09]
3 census.gov/retail/marts/www/retail.html [6/11/09]
4 money.cnn.com/2009/06/24/markets/markets_newyork/?postversion=2009062417 [6/24/09]
5 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ah5hyV.4zUcQ [6/17/09]
6 usatoday.com/money/autos/2009-06-01-gm-bankruptcy_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip [6/1/09]
7 federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/bcreg20090507a1.pdf [5/7/09]
8 smartmoney.com/personal-finance/debt/tighter-credit-card-rules-pass-senate-milestone/ [5/22/09]
9 topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/credit_crisis/financial_regulatory_reform/index.html [6/17/09]
10 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aki1sLcOe4GM [6/26/09]
11 marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-up-on-world-bank-outlook-fed-buyback [6/22/09]
12 online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090623-703072.html [6/23/09]
13 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ayv2y3z6PgAM [6/27/09]
14 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/06/30/data-points-asia-europe-70/ [6/30/09]
15 cnbc.com/id/31681486 [7/1/09]
16 investmentpostcards.com [7/2/09]
17 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/06/30/data-points-energy-metals-69/ [6/30/09]
18 cnbc.com/id/31572710/page/2/ [6/26/09]
19 marketwatch.com/story/gold-nearly-flat-heading-for-4-monthly-loss [6/30/09]
20 online.wsj.com/article/SB124640700764876885.html [7/2/09]
21 online.wsj.com/article/SB124640544999576627.html?mod=googlenews_wsj [7/2/09]
22 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a8E10zbitkmc [6/30/09]
23 money.cnn.com/2009/07/01/real_estate/May_pending_sales/?postversion=2009070110 [7/1/09]
24 features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/06/23/us-existing-home-sales-edge-up-24-percent/ [6/23/09]
25 online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090624-709033.html [6/24/09]
26 freddiemac.com/dlink/html/PMMS/display/PMMSOutputYr.jsp [7/2/09]
27 businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D996DVO80.htm [7/2/09]
28 forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/06/30/2009-06-30T141504Z_01_LU614869_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-POLL-WRAPUP-1.html [6/30/09]]
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Posted by Curtis on 6 July 2009 | 0 Comments
Tags:
Employment,
Layoff,
Insurance
COPING WITH A LAYOFF
What can you do to help yourself?
You go to work and get the word … you’re being laid off. Maybe it’s no surprise. Maybe it comes as a shock. The question becomes: what now?
Basically, you have three quick to-dos: leaving work with as much money as possible, securing health insurance for the interim, and arranging unemployment benefits. Beyond these items, stay calm and stay in the hunt – or alternatively, work for yourself.
Negotiate your exit. While no law requires your employer to give you a severance package, some employers do provide them.1 Severance package or not, you may very well receive two weeks pay and perhaps compensation for unused vacation or sick days.
Don’t be meek here. If you’ve been a key employee or simply a good employee, make the case for your company to extend your health coverage a little longer or give you a true severance package. They may see the merit if you have proven yours.
In tax terms, it may be better to receive your severance pay in the form of recurring checks rather than a lump sum. If you get a lump sum, it’s quite possible you could have too much withheld.
If you know you are getting laid off in the next few months, you can request to reduce the amount of withholding taxes on your last few paychecks to give yourself more take-home pay. And if it looks like you are going to receive a lump sum severance before December 31, think about deferring that payment until 2010 so you don’t have to include it on your 2009 tax return.
Keep yourself insured. If you can sign up as a spouse for the plan offered by your spouse’s employer, it makes sense to do it as soon as you can. If that doesn’t describe your situation, then the options are extending coverage through COBRA or keeping up the payments on private life or disability insurance that your company provided.
If you sign up for COBRA at the moment, the federal government will subsidize 65% of the cost for nine months as a result of the federal stimulus. In COBRA, you will have to pay the entire premium on your health insurance plus a 2% administrative fee.1
Sign up for unemployment benefits. It is prudent (not demeaning) to sign up for these benefits. You will want to do so ASAP, because it may take a few weeks for that first check to arrive. In some states, you can receive unemployment checks even if you have been given a severance package – although you may have to wait until the entirety of the severance is issued to you before jobless benefits can follow.1
Remember that the federal government is pulling out all the stops right now. Take advantage of the federal economic stimulus effort, which is directing $500 million toward helping the jobless find jobs. New search assistance, education, and retraining programs are available. The government is also boosting unemployment payments a bit and elongating parameters of eligibility. Currently, the average weekly unemployment check in America is about $300. Jobseekers can receive unemployment benefits for up to 46 weeks – up to 59 weeks in states where the unemployment rate tops 6% for more than three months in a row, which would be just about everywhere right now. Under the stimulus, weekly unemployment checks will increase by $20 – and the first $2,400 of unemployment payments will be tax-exempt.1
Press flesh, not just keys. Despite the buzz surrounding job boards like Monster.com, Dice.com and CareerBuilder.com, an article this winter in the San Francisco Chronicle noted that only about 2-3% of new hires find their jobs through such resources. About 15% of new hires find work directly by applying at a company’s web site, and about 65% find new jobs through that old standby – networking.2
Older employees may actually cope with layoffs better. That’s what a collaborative study coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Columbia University has just concluded. It found that laid-off workers younger than 55 experience a much greater increase in “mortality hazards” than their older counterparts – stress and health risks, addictions, and negative personal behaviors. Perhaps this is because workers over 55 are somewhat less likely to deal with making ends meet and the pressures of raising a family; they may have already thought about (and planned for) a retirement transition and they have the options of Medicare and Social Security now or in the near future.3
Have you been given a gift? That’s one way to look at it: one door closes, another opens. If you have an entrepreneurial ambition, or just suspect that like many Americans you will one day have to be your own boss, then maybe now is the time to talk over your options with a potential mentor – a friend who owns a business or makes a living as an independent professional in your industry. If you are mature and want or need to keep working, you might even think about a life or career coach – someone who can help you see the full range of possibilities, including those that you may not have considered five or ten years ago.
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